BIMBO CABIDOG
When Ferdinand Marcos placed the country under Martial Law on
September 21, 1972, were the commies, which he used as the principal reason, poised to seize power?
What Marcos did later would belie it, and make the signing
of ML Proclamation 1081 nothing more than a seizure of power by himself.
Now, President Rodrigo Duterte and his cohorts in the
military are raising the same communist spectre again. They are presenting the tale
of a plot to oust him by the left coalescing with the Liberal Party, Magdalo,
newly formed anti-tyranny alliances and even elements of the Armed Forces.
The said political formations were supposed to launch massive
destabilization during the 46th commemoration of martial law. But it
did not happen. Duterte’s military cohorts quickly adjusted the ouster plot from
September to the next month. They switched the script to one labeled “Red October.”
It might be good to revisit the recent past to see what Red
October is really about. Here is an uncanny similarity with what Marcos did 46
years ago, and what Duterte is cooking up now.
After the declaration of martial law on the pretext of a
communist takeover, Marcos reigned as a dictator for fourteen years. Contrary
to his claim, his rule went unchallenged by any significant armed
resistance except by the Moro Islamic movement in the south.
The peace that prevailed actually showed no imminent danger
to the nation that warranted suppression of civil liberties, denial of freedom
of the press and expression, abolition of Congress, and the night of repressive
terror that ensued. But PP 1081 has implanted his fascist dictatorship for good.
In 1972, all the Communist Party of the Philippines and its
military wing, the New People’s Army, had was a rag-tag band of rookies
getting their first deadly lessons in guerrilla warfare.
With their political-military strength, for the
communists to try in an instant at adventurously dismantling the ruling state machinery and putting
up a new rule all over the country was quixotic. It was mission impossible, a no-no for revolutionaries who at the very least still hold
their sanity.
Besides being downright stupid, such quick victory schemes were not in sync with the doctrine of protracted armed struggle by CPP founder
and first chair Jose Maria Sison.
No one was in a position to grab state power except
Marcos. There was no danger of the country falling under the dictatorship of the
proletariat as communism envisions. The supposed grave danger was a barber’s tale propped up by Marcos
to justify the dissolution of the liberal democratic political order and installation
of his own dictatorship. This was what exactly happened in his palace coup.
The hoisting of the communist bogey followed by the declaration
of martial law was a ploy to: one, grab absolute power and foist one-man rule
with Marcos doing whatever he wants, unhampered by any democratic checks and
balances and dissent: two, perpetuate his reign beyond what was provided by the
Constitution, with no more time limit.
The painting of the spectre of communism convinced the
people for a while that ML was necessary. But they found out soon that they were
fooled. The CPP-NPA was nowhere near any seizure of power. Decades since, the armed
left has not even gotten off the strategic defensive phase: the stage of armed
struggle where it still lacks the capability to mount large-scale offensives
and possess territory.
After surmounting this first stage, the revolutionary movement
still has to hurdle two more – the stages of stalemate or parity of force with
the government, followed by the stage of counter-offensive, before it could
finally establish its own “national democratic” state with a “socialist
perspective.”
The succeeding second and third hurdles look into probably a
century more of warfare to
accomplish complete victory if such is ever achievable.
Right now, a communist capture of power is a punch at the
moon. The CPP-NPA merely has gone as far as gain the reputation of waging the
longest running insurgency in Asia. But parity of forces and
weaponry with the government is not in sight – near or far.
So go back 46 years ago, how Marcos was blatantly lying. The
fearful image he presented about communism being ready to swallow the whole
country was a hoax. The movement’s challenge then consisted mainly of isolated
ambuscades in thinly dispersed pockets of armed resistance, accompanied by teach-ins
in campuses.
Those who decided indeed to take up arms and go to the
countryside were but a bunch of intellectuals fresh from the academe combining
with remnants of the defunct Hukbong Mapagpalaya ng Bayan. The two groups reconstituted
a fledgling army after the HMB’s route by the Magsaysay government.
Fourteen years later, history would take an unfortunate turn
for both the Marcos dictatorship and the CPP-NPA, shortening the life span of
the former, while lengthening the protracted struggle of the latter. The turn
was Edsa 1 capping the anti-dictatorship ferments in February 1986.
The often-called people power revolution at Edsa ousted Marcos via a
peaceful civilian-military revolt driven by the middle class, under the
auspices of the traditional political opposition and rich business sponsors in
Metro Manila. It also prolonged the timeframe of the left, thereby
setting its protracted struggle on yet an open-ended course.
As one effect, the historical divergence shifted the
attention of the people from the political front with a still festering armed
conflict to the economic front. This made it harder for the CPP-NPA and its
broad political arm, the National Democratic Front, to expand the ranks of the
armed revolution.
Another effect was the restoration of democratic space
under a new dispensation. This diverted attention of the masses from pursuing
further socio-political change to settling down and taking opportunity with
what the post-dictatorship arrangement has to offer.
Among other setbacks for the left is the
post-1986 newly contracted indulgence in political talk and electoral Monday morning
quarterbacking of the citizenry. The counterproductive and misled kind of
political involvement riveted ordinary folks in all walks of life.
The post-Marcos order made the people forget that
there were still so many things to do outside the electoral path to secure substantial and meaningful improvement in their lives.
The left’s target mass base for itself would be hoodwinked
into engrossing in chatter over the topic of elections, which were turning out to
be futile deceptive exercises as far as the interests of the basic social
sectors – the peasant, workers, urban poor, youth, women and professionals, were
concerned.
Certain reforms, like the enactment of the Local Government
Code, would bring beneficial results hoisting a semblance of meaningful
change that the masses clung to. But these shied away from the social transformation
that the left purveyed.
In the 46th annual commemoration of ML, the
insurgency of the CPP-NPA-NDF continues. But it still has not progressed into
the stage when it could already inflict decisive defeats on state forces and
take position of territory that it could well defend.
Like before, the reds are still in no mood for insurrectionist adventure wishing to sweep the whole country in an armed conflagration.
They have neither the firepower, nor formidable mass base, nor heated social
condition to kindle it.
So what then is the Red October about that Duterte is mongering?
By all indication, it is more of a Hollywood-like production with a badly
written script than any genuine blueprint for drastic regime change.
Duterte’s loyal choir among the AFP generals are taking
preposterous lengths to present the plan for the so-called Red October in paper
marked with large fonts that spell SECRET. Does any plotter of a government ouster resort to such idiocy?
Nonetheless, there is a sinister plot that the citizens must fear and
worry. It is a plot to foist Marcos-style fascism using once again the communist bogey. This is the installation of a regime misleadingly labelled
revolutionary government, to put the country under Duterte’s absolute and
unlimited rule.
The chilling past is coming back to haunt again. The Red October
smacks of déjà vu.
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